Official Rules

What this is

Consensus is a promotional sweepstakes and contest of skill. Participation is free. No purchase is necessary, no payment is accepted, and nothing of value is staked by any participant at any time.

Trading uses credits, a contest scoring unit with no cash value. Credits cannot be bought, sold, transferred between accounts, or redeemed for anything. Standings turn entirely on forecasting skill: participants profit by moving market prices toward what actually happens.

Entry

• Entry is free and open at the signup page. Every account receives the same 1,000 starting credits.
• One account per person. Duplicate accounts may be removed and their activity unwound.
• Email addresses are used for account verification only and are never displayed.

Contest period and prize

• The contest period runs through the certification of the November 2026 Alaska general election and the resolution of all listed markets.
• Season prize: to be announced before the contest period opens. The prize, sponsor, and any additional eligibility terms will be published on this page before any prize-eligible trading begins.
• Final standings are the leaderboard at the close of the contest period: total profit (cash plus settled payouts, minus starting credits). Starting credits and any bonuses never count toward profit.

How markets work

• Prices are set by an automated market maker (logarithmic market scoring rule). Every trade moves the price; the price is the market's collective probability estimate.
• Shares of the winning outcome pay 1.00 credit at resolution; all other shares pay zero.
• Markets close to trading at their posted close time.

Resolution

• Every market states its resolution criteria and source before it opens. Markets resolve on certified or official results from the named source, not on election-night counts.
• A market may resolve early when its outcome is beyond reasonable doubt.
• Resolutions are provisional for 48 hours. During that window a resolution may be reversed and corrected; payouts are clawed back and reissued accordingly. After the window, resolutions are final.
• A market whose question becomes incoherent may be voided: every participant is refunded exactly what they put in.
• The contest administrator resolves markets and publishes reasoning with each resolution. The administrator does not trade.

Fair play

• No transfers, no coordination to move balances between accounts, no automation that degrades the contest for others.
• The administrator may unwind trades or remove accounts that break these rules, with an explanation posted.

Sponsor

Consensus is operated by Alaska Targeting, Anchorage, Alaska. Questions about these rules: use the contact information at alaskatargeting.com.